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Introduction of the predictive risk stratification model increased emergency episodes, hospitalisation and costs across and within risk levels without clear evidence of benefits to patients

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Helen Snooks, Kerry Bailey-Jones, Deborah Burge-Jones, Jeremy Dale, Jan Davies, Bridie Evans, Angela Farr, Deborah Fitzsimmons, Jane Harrison, Martin Heaven, Helen Howson, Hayley Hutchings, Gareth John, Mark Kingston, Leo Lewis, Ceri Phillips, Alison Porter, Bernadette Sewell, Daniel Warm, Alan Watkins, Shirley Whitman, Victoria Williams & Ian T Russell.

Helen Snooks 1,*, Kerry Bailey-Jones 2, Deborah Burge-Jones 2, Jeremy Dale 3, Jan Davies 4, Bridie Evans 1, Angela Farr 5, Deborah Fitzsimmons 5, Jane Harrison 6, Martin Heaven 7, Helen Howson 8, Hayley Hutchings 1, Gareth John 9, Mark Kingston 1, Leo Lewis 10, Ceri Phillips 5, Alison Porter 1, Bernadette Sewell 5, Daniel Warm 11, Alan Watkins 1, Shirley Whitman 4, Victoria Williams 1, Ian T Russell 1

1 Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK
2 Abertawe Bro Morgannwg University Health Board, Port Talbot, UK
3 Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
4 Independent service user, ,
5 Swansea Centre for Health Economics, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
6 Public Health Wales, Cardiff, UK
7 The FARR Institute, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK
8 Bevan Commission, School of Management, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
9 NHS Wales Informatics Service, Cardiff, UK
10 International Foundation for Integrated Care, Oxford, UK
11 Hywel Dda University Health Board, Hafan Derwen, Carmarthen, UK
* Corresponding author Email:

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